Determinants of organ malfunction or death in patients with intra-abdominal sepsis. A discriminant analysis
R. W. Pine, M. J. Wertz, E. S. Lennard, E. P. Dellinger, C. J. Carrico and B. H. Minshew
One hundred and six patients found at operation to have intra-abdominal
sepsis were prospectively followed up to determine the incidence of organ
malfunction and death. These outcomes were correlated with age, preexisting
disease, underlying cause of sepsis, shock, nutritional status, and
alcoholism. Organ malfunction occurred in 31 patients (29%), 19 (61%) of
whom died. Two (3%) of 75 patients without organ malfunction died.
Discriminant analysis revealed a significantly increased risk of death in
patients with shock at any time, age greater than 65 years, alcoholism,
bowel infarction, or malnutrition. A discriminant equation based only on
preoperative variables correctly assigned the outcome of death or survival
in 97 (92%) of the patients based on probabilities derived from this
analysis. At present, this information is primarily of interest for
researchers comparing outcomes in groups of patients, but with additional
refinements it may become clinically useful for individual patients.
